Gators by 11.5, Three Parlays, and Then I'm Gone Until November

Last Saturday Missouri did things to our Gators that I am still not ready to talk about. This Saturday they're back in Gainesville at 12:45, and I am back to pretending I have a system.

Lines are DraftKings via ESPN, pulled Friday at about 8:36 a.m. ET and checked against the Covers odds board at the same time. They will move. Rankings are this week's AP poll. This is entertainment, not a tip sheet and not advice.

Our team first

No. 16 Florida -11.5 vs. South Carolina, O/U 58.5. Saturday, 12:45 p.m., SEC Network, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Moneyline Gators -470, Gamecocks +360.

Covers has the opener at Florida -14.5 with a total of 61. The books opened this at 14.5 and have been quietly walking it back all week, which is the sportsbook version of a friend saying "no, yeah, you'll be fine." The market watched the Missouri game too.

I'm taking Florida -11.5 anyway. Not because of a model. Because I live here, and the alternative is explaining to people at Publix why I bet against the Gators at home in October.

The other Florida teams

• Florida State at Louisville, Friday 7 p.m., ESPN. Louisville -3.5, O/U 59.5. A Friday night road dog in Kentucky. FSU +3.5 is the play if you trust the Seminoles to travel well on a short week, and nothing about the last few years says you should, which is exactly why the number is interesting.
• UCF at No. 18 Oklahoma State, Saturday noon, ESPN2. Oklahoma State -10.5, O/U 53.5. Double digits in Stillwater. UCF +10.5 if you like a long afternoon of nervously refreshing your phone at a kid's soccer game.
• Miami and FAU are off this week. USF lost 31-24 at UTSA on Thursday, and FIU beat New Mexico State 22-3 on Wednesday, so their weekends are already accounted for.

The rest of the ranked board

Friday

• No. 20 Iowa at Washington, 9 p.m.: Washington -2.5, O/U 41.5
• Iowa State at No. 8 BYU, 10:15 p.m., ESPN: BYU -10.5, O/U 46.5

Saturday, noon

• No. 7 Indiana at Nebraska, Fox: Indiana -7.5, O/U 47.5
• Texas A&M at No. 14 Missouri, ABC: Missouri -3.5, O/U 48.5
• North Carolina at No. 25 Pittsburgh, ESPN: Pitt -3.5, O/U 47.5

Saturday, afternoon

• No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma in Dallas, 3:30 p.m., ABC: Texas -7.5, O/U 39.5
• Stanford at No. 3 Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m., NBC: Notre Dame -38.5, O/U 54.5
• No. 9 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m., ESPN: Ole Miss -9.5, O/U 54.5
• No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon, 3:30 p.m., CBS: Oregon -11.5, O/U 59.5
• No. 22 Houston at Kansas State, 3:30 p.m., Fox: Kansas State -2.5, O/U 55.5
• Maryland at No. 5 Ohio State, 4:15 p.m., BTN: Ohio State -32.5, O/U 56.5
• No. 15 Tennessee at Arkansas, 4:15 p.m., SEC Network: Tennessee -13.5, O/U 51.5

Saturday, night

• No. 10 LSU at Kentucky, 7 p.m., ESPN: LSU -8.5, O/U 51.5
• No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama, 7:30 p.m., ABC: Alabama -1.5, O/U 51.5
• No. 19 USC at Penn State, 7:30 p.m., NBC: Penn State -1.5, O/U 54.5
• Kansas at No. 12 Utah, 10:15 p.m., ESPN: Utah -15.5, O/U 51.5
• No. 23 Boise State at Fresno State, 10:30 p.m., CW: Boise State -6.5, O/U 48.5

Texas and Oklahoma at 39.5 is the number I keep staring at. That's a total for two teams who'd apparently rather punt than talk. Georgia at Alabama is a point and a half, which is the books admitting they have no idea either.

Three parlays

Safe-ish two-leg: Florida -11.5 + LSU -8.5 at Kentucky. Two SEC favorites who are supposed to be favorites. That's the whole pitch.

Medium three-leg: FSU +3.5 + Georgia +1.5 + Texas -7.5. Friday night hope, a coin flip in Tuscaloosa, and the Red River. Your Sunday will have opinions.

Fun long shot: Notre Dame -38.5 + Ohio State -32.5 + Florida -11.5 + Texas-Oklahoma under 39.5. Two blowouts that have to be exact kinds of blowouts, our team, and a game nobody scores in. If it cashes, buy something nice. If it doesn't, you already knew.

Gamble responsibly. 21+. If it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or the Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling at 1-888-ADMIT-IT (1-888-236-4848). Entertainment only, not a guarantee.

One more thing

That's it from me until November. I'm headed to Portugal's Douro Valley, where the vineyards come down to the river in terraces somebody carved by hand a few centuries ago and never stopped tending. I plan to drink port a couple of hours upriver from the city it's named after, watch the light go gold on those slopes, and check exactly zero scores. Somebody else has the remote. I'll be back in November with opinions about fortified wine.

Go Gators. Saúde.

— Kevin