The Gators Are 11.5-Point Underdogs in Austin. I'm Making Queso Anyway.
Marina fills in on the Friday bets while Kevin is in the Douro Valley: a sad Gators fan's look at Florida at Texas, FSU at Miami, every ranked line for Saturday, three parlays and a lot of snack opinions.
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Hi! Marina here. Yes, the food person. I'm filling in on the Friday bets while Kevin is in the Douro Valley, where I assume he is on a terrace with a glass of port and no idea what happened in Gainesville last Saturday. I have decided not to tell him.
I don't have a system. I have a snack table, and the snack table has been watching football for a long time.
Lines are DraftKings via ESPN, pulled Friday at 8:53 a.m. ET and checked against the VegasInsider odds board at 8:55. They will move. Rankings are this week's AP poll. This is entertainment, not a tip sheet and not advice.
Our team first
Okay. Last Saturday.
South Carolina came into the Swamp as an 11.5-point underdog and won 38-19. LaNorris Sellers threw four touchdown passes, the Gators turned it over three times to the Gamecocks' zero, and 90,311 people watched it happen in person. That's two straight losses after Missouri. Florida is 4-2, 2-2 in the SEC, and out of the AP poll.
I made a whole tray of buffalo chicken dip for that game and nobody touched it after halftime. The dip was fine. We were not.
The one nice thing: Bailey Stockton caught eight passes for 127 yards, including a 59-yard touchdown from Aaron Philo on the opening drive. For about eleven minutes it was a different afternoon.
Florida +11.5 at No. 7 Texas, O/U 51.5. Saturday, noon, ABC, Austin. Moneyline Gators +340, Longhorns -440.
This opened Texas -9.5 and has drifted two points further away from us all week, while the total slid from 53.5. Texas is coming off a loss too, 27-24 to Oklahoma in Dallas, which knocked the Longhorns from No. 1 to No. 7. So it's two teams who spent the week getting yelled at, and only one of them gets to do it at home.
I'm taking Florida +11.5. That is not analysis. That is loyalty, plus the fact that a noon kickoff means breakfast tacos, and I refuse to eat breakfast tacos while rooting against my own team. When you play Texas, you eat Texas: migas tacos, a big pot of queso, brisket if you planned ahead on Thursday. Eat their food. Take their points.
The other Florida teams
- Florida State at No. 3 Miami, Saturday 7 p.m., ESPN, Hard Rock Stadium. Miami -21.5, O/U 56.5. Miami is 5-0 and rested after a bye, last seen winning 41-13 at Clemson. FSU is 3-3 after losing 44-20 at Louisville last Friday. This opened at 16.5 and grew five points in a week, which is the market's way of saying it watched the Louisville game. FSU +21.5 is a rivalry-game hope bet and nothing more. Rivalry rules at my house: Cuban sandwiches, croquetas, and nobody brings up the score until the pastelitos are gone.
- Kent State at USF, Saturday 7 p.m., ESPN+, Raymond James Stadium. USF -20.5, O/U 45.5. The Bulls are 4-2 and back home after a 31-24 loss at UTSA on Oct. 8. Kent State is 2-4. Big number, small total. Get a Cuban from somewhere in Tampa and don't overthink it.
- FAU at Army, Saturday noon, CBS Sports Network. Army -2.5, O/U 54.5. FAU is 4-1 and coming off a bye after beating Texas Southern 66-10. The total opened at 59.5 and dropped five points, which is what happens when the other team runs the ball and the clock never stops. FAU +2.5 is the one I actually like on this whole board.
- UCF is off this week after a 42-28 loss at Oklahoma State. FIU lost 27-24 at Jacksonville State on Tuesday night, so its week is already done.
The rest of the ranked board
All Saturday. No. 17 Iowa, No. 19 USC and No. 23 Boise State are off.
Noon
- No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana, Fox: Ohio State -3.5, O/U 50.5
- No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU, ESPN: LSU -15.5, O/U 57.5
- Virginia at No. 24 SMU, CW: SMU -9.5, O/U 51.5
- No. 25 Northwestern at Michigan State, Peacock: Northwestern -7, O/U 49.5
3:30 p.m.
- Auburn at No. 1 Georgia, ESPN: Georgia -19.5, O/U 49.5
- No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee, ABC: Alabama -7.5, O/U 50.5
- No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss, SEC Network: Ole Miss -5.5, O/U 58.5
- Arizona State at No. 10 Texas Tech, Fox: Texas Tech -15.5, O/U 50.5
Night
- No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU, 7:30 p.m., ABC: Notre Dame -10.5, O/U 46.5
- Wisconsin at No. 12 UCLA, 7:30 p.m., NBC: UCLA -2.5, O/U 42.5
- No. 15 Kentucky at Oklahoma, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network: Oklahoma -6.5, O/U 43.5
- No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston, 7:30 p.m., Fox: Houston -4.5, O/U 62.5
- No. 11 Utah at Colorado, 10:15 p.m., ESPN: Utah -14.5, O/U 49.5
- No. 21 Wake Forest at Cal, 10:30 p.m., ESPN2: Wake Forest -10, O/U 53.5
Alabama at Tennessee opened at Alabama -1.5 and now sits at 7.5. Six points in one week. Either somebody knows something, or a lot of somebodies think they do. I'm making Nashville hot chicken for that one. I know Knoxville is not Nashville. The chicken doesn't care.
Ohio State at Indiana opened as a pick'em, and now the Buckeyes are laying 3.5 in Bloomington against a team that hasn't lost. And Oklahoma State at Houston, 62.5, is the biggest total on the board, the kind of game where the second tray of wings needs to be in the oven by halftime.
Three parlays
Safe-ish two-leg: Notre Dame -10.5 at BYU + Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Kentucky. Two favorites the market has barely touched all week. That's the whole pitch, and it's honestly more research than I put into my grocery list.
Medium three-leg: Florida +11.5 + Indiana +3.5 + Houston -4.5. Our team keeps it close, the unbeaten home dog holds serve, and Houston wins a shootout. Every leg is a feeling. Some feelings cash.
Fun long shot: Gators moneyline +340 + Tennessee moneyline +270 + FSU +21.5 + Oklahoma State-Houston over 62.5. If this one hits, stone crab season opened yesterday and I know exactly what I'm doing with the money. If it doesn't, you already knew.
Gamble responsibly. 21+. If it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or the Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling at 1-888-ADMIT-IT (1-888-236-4848). Entertainment only, not a guarantee.
One more thing
Kevin is still in Portugal, and from what I can tell the Douro Valley has excellent food, a lot of wine and zero Gators, which sounds like a very peaceful week. He's back in November. Until then it's me, my queso and a lot of hope pointed at Austin.
Go Gators. Please.
— Marina
Can't pick? Pull a random one From the food, wine and myth-busting pile. No old game slates.